NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
7-7-0 | Road
1
CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
9-6-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Semyon Varlamov
#40 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Dustin Wolf
#32 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov | None-None | 0.93 | 0.968 | -- |
| Dustin Wolf | None-None | 0.92 | 0.966 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.93
GAA
Ldr 0.92
0.968 Ldr
Save %
0.966
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
FLAMES
0%
ISLANDERS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CALGARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Calgary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CGY -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CGY)
NYI By 1 goal
16.1%
NYI By 2-3 goals
15.6%
CGY By 1 goal
18.6%
CGY By 2-3 goals
21.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2.32
NEW YORK
Calgary
2.61
CALGARY
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Calgary
5
CALGARY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flames
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flames (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.3
D
Sim
Flames (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 4.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
CGY @ NYI
2 - 3
Jan 17, 2026
NYI @ CGY
2 - 4
Mar 22, 2025
CGY @ NYI
4 - 3
Nov 19, 2024
NYI @ CGY
1 - 2
Feb 10, 2024
CGY @ NYI
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+60.9% more
Calgary: 7.9
vs
New York: 4.9
Hits (L5)
+24.1% more
Calgary: 19.4
vs
New York: 15.6
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.6% more
Calgary: 30.7
vs
New York: 26.3
Blocked Shots (L5)
+11.1% more
Calgary: 18.0
vs
New York: 16.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
2.3
1
CGY Score
2.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.0 / 16.2
11.0 / 24.0
Faceoff %
46.8 / 55.6
37.3 / 62.7
Hits
19.4 / 15.6
18.0 / 24.0
Power Play %
3.8 / 6.4
100.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.7 / 26.3
31.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
7.9 / 4.9
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CGY
NYI
CGY
NYI
ML
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
67%
2-1
100%
2-0-1
0%
0-3
100%
2-0-1
Contextual Game News
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Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
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