INDIANA
PACERSIND
6-7 | Road
119
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
2-12 | Home
130
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
RAPTORS
100%
PACERS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
27.4%
IND By 8-14 points
21.9%
TOR By 1-7 points
19.8%
TOR By 8-14 points
9.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
112.93
INDIANA
Toronto
108.72
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Indiana
110
INDIANA
Toronto
116
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 8, 2026
IND @ TOR
104 - 122
Jan 14, 2026
TOR @ IND
115 - 101
Nov 26, 2025
IND @ TOR
95 - 97
Nov 15, 2025
TOR @ IND
129 - 111
Feb 26, 2025
TOR @ IND
91 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+21.8% more
Indiana: 4.9
vs
Toronto: 3.8
Steals (L5)
+17.2% more
Indiana: 7.4
vs
Toronto: 6.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.6%
Indiana: 83.8%
vs
Toronto: 73.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Indiana: 40.8%
vs
Toronto: 33.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
112.9
119
TOR Score
108.7
130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.8 / 40.8
48.3 / 37.5
Assists
27.7 / 27.4
27.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.8 / 4.9
9.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 48.9
58.5 / 44.4
Free Throw %
73.1 / 83.8
71.4 / 80.0
Rebounding
47.3 / 40.8
46.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.1 / 7.4
5.0 / 17.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 14.3
23.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
IND
TOR
IND
ML
55%
57-47
48%
47-50
55%
48-39
54%
45-38
ATS
61%
62-40-2
59%
57-40
55%
48-39
54%
45-38
TTL
60%
62-42
54%
52-45
100%
87-0
100%
83-0
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