PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
2-10 | Road
89
MIAMI
HEATMIA
5-7 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
76ERS
0%
HEAT
100%
76ERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
209.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-7 points
25.5%
PHI By 8-14 points
15.5%
MIA By 1-7 points
25.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
15.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
104.96
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
104.82
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
107
PHILADELPHIA
Miami
112
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
76ers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
76ers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 209.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PHI @ MIA
109 - 119
Feb 26, 2026
MIA @ PHI
117 - 124
Nov 23, 2025
MIA @ PHI
127 - 117
Apr 7, 2025
PHI @ MIA
105 - 117
Mar 29, 2025
MIA @ PHI
118 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+21.6% more
Philadelphia: 3.2
vs
Miami: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+18.7% more
Philadelphia: 15.2
vs
Miami: 12.4
Steals (L5)
+14.5% more
Miami: 10.4
vs
Philadelphia: 9.0
Assists (L5)
+11.9% more
Miami: 24.0
vs
Philadelphia: 21.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
105.0
89
MIA Score
104.8
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.0 / 32.1
29.5 / 24.4
Assists
24.0 / 21.4
26.0 / 25.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.2
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 42.3
41.4 / 41.7
Free Throw %
84.1 / 84.5
91.3 / 75.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 38.9
53.0 / 42.0
Steals
10.4 / 9.0
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 15.2
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
PHI
MIA
PHI
ML
48%
46-50
63%
69-40
59%
48-34
48%
45-48
ATS
51%
49-47
65%
71-38
59%
48-34
48%
45-48
TTL
59%
57-39
55%
60-49
100%
82-0
100%
93-0
Contextual Game News
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
Mike Breen Issues Apology After LeBron James Shoots Down Embiid …
Desmond Bane Returns to FedExForum as Grizzlies Host Magic in Pr…
Colin Cowherd: LeBron James' Arthritis and Sciatica Made 76ers t…