Home / NBA Projections NBA / Magic @ Suns ORL @ PHX

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

8-6  |  Road

109
FINAL
Mon, Nov 18 • 9:00 PM ET
Footprint Center
View Odds Details →

PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

9-5  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
📊
SUNS
0%
MAGIC --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Phoenix)
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

49.6%

Suns Cover

50.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

ORL By 1-7 points

25.2%

ORL By 8-14 points

15.1%

PHX By 1-7 points

25.4%

PHX By 8-14 points

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
106.65
ORLANDO
106.76
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
112
ORLANDO
117
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Suns Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 PHX @ ORL 111 - 115
Feb 21, 2026 ORL @ PHX 110 - 113
Dec 8, 2024 PHX @ ORL 110 - 115
Nov 18, 2024 ORL @ PHX 109 - 99
Jan 28, 2024 PHX @ ORL 98 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +11.7% more
Phoenix: 24.4 vs Orlando: 21.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Phoenix: 36.6% vs Orlando: 30.3%
Blocks (L5) +46.2% more
Orlando: 7.0 vs Phoenix: 3.7
Steals (L5) +13.7% more
Orlando: 9.5 vs Phoenix: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 106.7 109
PHX Score 106.8 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.6 / 30.3 29.3 / 37.9
Assists 24.4 / 21.9 25.0 / 28.0
Blocks 3.7 / 7.0 2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 44.0 42.2 / 51.3
Free Throw % 74.5 / 84.1 68.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 44.4 45.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.2 / 9.5 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 15.7 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
ORL
PHX
ORL
ML
57% 60-45
61% 65-42
51% 45-43
56% 51-40
ATS
58% 59-43-3
64% 68-38-1
51% 45-43
56% 51-40
TTL
59% 61-42-2
57% 61-46
100% 88-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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