ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
6-8 | Road
109
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
8-6 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
KINGS
0%
HAWKS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.7
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.7 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -8.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
ATL By 1-7 points
12.7%
ATL By 8-14 points
4.3%
SAC By 1-7 points
24.6%
SAC By 8-14 points
26.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
111.62
ATLANTA
Sacramento
120.29
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
106
ATLANTA
Sacramento
112
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.7
D
Sim
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 231.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 218.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
SAC @ ATL
113 - 123
Nov 12, 2025
ATL @ SAC
133 - 100
Nov 18, 2024
ATL @ SAC
109 - 108
Nov 1, 2024
SAC @ ATL
123 - 115
Jan 22, 2024
ATL @ SAC
107 - 122
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Sacramento: 38.4%
vs
Atlanta: 33.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Sacramento: 51.2%
vs
Atlanta: 46.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.7%
Sacramento: 80.0%
vs
Atlanta: 77.3%
Steals (L5)
+36.1% more
Atlanta: 10.9
vs
Sacramento: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
111.6
109
SAC Score
120.3
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 33.6
43.5 / 42.1
Assists
24.6 / 30.2
24.0 / 34.0
Blocks
4.9 / 6.3
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
51.2 / 46.8
43.5 / 47.0
Free Throw %
80.0 / 77.3
73.7 / 83.3
Rebounding
42.6 / 46.9
45.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.9 / 10.9
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 19.4
17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
ATL
SAC
ATL
ML
55%
55-45
50%
52-52
61%
50-32
55%
48-40
ATS
54%
52-45-3
53%
55-48-1
61%
50-32
55%
48-40
TTL
58%
57-42-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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