MIAMI
HEATMIA
5-6 | Road
110
INDIANA
PACERSIND
5-7 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
PACERS
100%
HEAT
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
19.8%
IND By 1-7 points
21.9%
IND By 8-14 points
11.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
113.96
MIAMI
Indiana
111.15
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Miami
107
MIAMI
Indiana
104
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
MIA @ IND
118 - 135
Jan 10, 2026
MIA @ IND
99 - 123
Dec 27, 2025
IND @ MIA
116 - 142
Feb 28, 2025
IND @ MIA
120 - 125
Jan 2, 2025
IND @ MIA
128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+40.5% more
Miami: 13.5
vs
Indiana: 8.1
Blocks (L5)
+35.8% more
Indiana: 4.4
vs
Miami: 3.2
Turnovers (L5)
+21.5% more
Indiana: 15.9
vs
Miami: 13.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Indiana: 80.6%
vs
Miami: 78.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
114.0
110
IND Score
111.2
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.8 / 37.9
44.8 / 44.2
Assists
26.0 / 25.5
30.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.2
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 47.6
51.8 / 40.0
Free Throw %
80.6 / 78.6
90.0 / 95.0
Rebounding
38.7 / 39.9
45.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.1 / 13.5
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 13.1
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIA
IND
MIA
ML
48%
47-50
48%
46-50
54%
45-38
59%
48-34
ATS
59%
57-40
51%
49-47
54%
45-38
59%
48-34
TTL
54%
52-45
59%
57-39
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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