DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
7-4 | Road
90
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
7-6 | Home
105
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
NUGGETS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DEN By 1-7 points
25.7%
DEN By 8-14 points
25.9%
MEM By 1-7 points
14.4%
MEM By 8-14 points
5.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
121.86
DENVER
Memphis
114.27
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Denver
107
DENVER
Memphis
112
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.6
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 236.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
MEM @ DEN
119 - 136
Mar 18, 2026
DEN @ MEM
118 - 125
Feb 11, 2026
MEM @ DEN
116 - 122
Nov 24, 2025
DEN @ MEM
125 - 115
Apr 11, 2025
MEM @ DEN
109 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+13.0% more
Denver: 31.2
vs
Memphis: 27.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.2%
Denver: 39.3%
vs
Memphis: 30.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Denver: 48.7%
vs
Memphis: 46.9%
Blocks (L5)
+138.5% more
Memphis: 9.1
vs
Denver: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
121.9
90
MEM Score
114.3
105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.0 / 39.3
33.3 / 32.3
Assists
27.1 / 31.2
31.0 / 23.0
Blocks
9.1 / 3.8
10.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 48.7
45.1 / 41.7
Free Throw %
82.1 / 81.3
83.3 / 71.4
Rebounding
49.2 / 43.1
45.0 / 39.0
Steals
9.6 / 8.1
10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.8 / 12.4
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
DEN
MEM
DEN
ML
57%
59-44
54%
57-48
50%
41-41
55%
47-39
ATS
63%
65-38
63%
65-38-2
50%
41-41
55%
47-39
TTL
70%
71-31-1
54%
56-48-1
100%
82-0
100%
86-0
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