ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
6-7 | Road
110
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
5-8 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
HAWKS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.8%
ATL By 8-14 points
18.5%
POR By 1-7 points
23.1%
POR By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
113.26
ATLANTA
Portland
111.31
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Atlanta
103
ATLANTA
Portland
111
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 224.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 214.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 1, 2026
POR @ ATL
101 - 135
Jan 15, 2026
ATL @ POR
101 - 117
Apr 1, 2025
POR @ ATL
127 - 113
Nov 17, 2024
ATL @ POR
110 - 114
Mar 27, 2024
POR @ ATL
106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+32.0% more
Atlanta: 30.2
vs
Portland: 20.6
Rebounding (L5)
+8.5% more
Atlanta: 46.9
vs
Portland: 42.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Atlanta: 47.3%
vs
Portland: 45.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+22.1% more
Portland: 19.0
vs
Atlanta: 15.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
113.3
110
POR Score
111.3
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 33.2
36.8 / 34.4
Assists
20.6 / 30.2
31.0 / 30.0
Blocks
6.9 / 6.0
10.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 47.3
46.3 / 45.9
Free Throw %
83.8 / 74.0
63.2 / 84.0
Rebounding
42.9 / 46.9
40.0 / 47.0
Steals
10.5 / 11.3
16.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
19.0 / 15.5
20.0 / 27.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
ATL
POR
ATL
ML
53%
56-49
50%
52-52
55%
49-40
55%
48-40
ATS
62%
65-39-1
53%
55-48-1
55%
49-40
55%
48-40
TTL
56%
58-46-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
89-0
100%
88-0
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