MIAMI
HEATMIA
4-6 | Road
124
INDIANA
PACERSIND
5-6 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
PACERS
0%
HEAT
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
MIA By 1-7 points
19.5%
MIA By 8-14 points
8.8%
IND By 1-7 points
27.3%
IND By 8-14 points
22.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
110.59
MIAMI
Indiana
114.98
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Miami
112
MIAMI
Indiana
108
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.4
D
Sim
Heat (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
MIA @ IND
118 - 135
Jan 10, 2026
MIA @ IND
99 - 123
Dec 27, 2025
IND @ MIA
116 - 142
Feb 28, 2025
IND @ MIA
120 - 125
Jan 2, 2025
IND @ MIA
128 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Indiana: 80.1%
vs
Miami: 76.6%
Steals (L5)
+34.3% more
Miami: 12.3
vs
Indiana: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
110.6
124
IND Score
115.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 39.0
40.0 / 35.7
Assists
25.1 / 24.7
28.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.3
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.5 / 45.5
51.2 / 51.7
Free Throw %
80.1 / 76.6
81.8 / 82.6
Rebounding
38.6 / 41.9
39.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.1 / 12.3
8.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 14.6
20.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIA
IND
MIA
ML
48%
47-50
48%
46-50
54%
45-38
59%
48-34
ATS
59%
57-40
51%
49-47
54%
45-38
59%
48-34
TTL
54%
52-45
59%
57-39
100%
83-0
100%
82-0
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