Home / NFL Projections NFL / Rams @ Patriots LAR @ NE

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

4-5  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sun, Nov 17 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

3-7  |  Home

22
Key Game
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
Ethan Evans None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
RAMS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New England)
RamsLAR (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

49.7%

Patriots Cover

50.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

LAR By 1-6 points

16.4%

LAR By 7-13 points

15.3%

NE By 1-6 points

16.5%

NE By 7-13 points

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
15.36
LOS ANGELES
15.46
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
27
LOS ANGELES
24
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Patriots Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Patriots (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim Rams (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 30.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2024 LAR @ NE 28 - 22
Dec 10, 2020 NE @ LAR 3 - 24
Feb 3, 2019 NE @ LAR 13 - 3
Dec 4, 2016 LAR @ NE 10 - 26
Oct 28, 2012 NE @ LAR 45 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.3% more
New England: 113.9 vs Los Angeles: 87.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.3% more
Los Angeles: 252.5 vs New England: 178.6
First Downs (L5) +18.5% more
Los Angeles: 21.1 vs New England: 17.2
Total Yards (L5) +14.0% more
Los Angeles: 340.0 vs New England: 292.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAR Score 15.4 28
NE Score 15.5 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 21.1 26.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 178.6 / 252.5 257.0 / 295.0
Rushing Yards 113.9 / 87.4 125.0 / 107.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 292.5 / 340.0 382.0 / 402.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.2 5.3 / 7.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
LAR
NE
LAR
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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