INDIANA
PACERSIND
5-5 | Road
90
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
6-6 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
MAGIC
0%
PACERS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
ORLANDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Orlando)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORL -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORL)
IND By 1-7 points
22.0%
IND By 8-14 points
11.0%
ORL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ORL By 8-14 points
19.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
112.93
INDIANA
Orlando
115.7
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Orlando
116
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 228.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
IND @ ORL
128 - 126
Jan 4, 2026
IND @ ORL
127 - 135
Dec 31, 2025
ORL @ IND
112 - 110
Apr 11, 2025
ORL @ IND
129 - 115
Nov 13, 2024
IND @ ORL
90 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+61.4% more
Orlando: 6.2
vs
Indiana: 3.8
Steals (L5)
+29.4% more
Orlando: 9.2
vs
Indiana: 7.1
Rebounding (L5)
+13.8% more
Orlando: 42.5
vs
Indiana: 37.4
Turnovers (L5)
+9.1% more
Orlando: 13.3
vs
Indiana: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
112.9
90
ORL Score
115.7
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.8 / 40.6
34.2 / 33.3
Assists
25.0 / 26.6
26.0 / 22.0
Blocks
6.2 / 3.8
10.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 49.2
40.5 / 38.1
Free Throw %
81.1 / 75.7
86.7 / 88.9
Rebounding
42.5 / 37.4
50.0 / 41.0
Steals
9.2 / 7.1
8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 12.2
17.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
IND
ORL
IND
ML
61%
65-42
48%
47-50
56%
51-40
54%
45-38
ATS
64%
68-38-1
59%
57-40
56%
51-40
54%
45-38
TTL
57%
61-46
54%
52-45
100%
91-0
100%
83-0
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