PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
9-2 | Road
104
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
6-5 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
KINGS
0%
SUNS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
222.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
PHX By 1-7 points
23.1%
PHX By 8-14 points
12.2%
SAC By 1-7 points
26.8%
SAC By 8-14 points
18.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
110.06
PHOENIX
Sacramento
112.03
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Phoenix
110
PHOENIX
Sacramento
102
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kings
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 222.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
PHX @ SAC
114 - 103
Jan 2, 2026
SAC @ PHX
102 - 129
Nov 26, 2025
PHX @ SAC
112 - 100
Oct 22, 2025
SAC @ PHX
116 - 120
Apr 13, 2025
PHX @ SAC
98 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.9% more
Sacramento: 8.7
vs
Phoenix: 7.2
Turnovers (L5)
+12.1% more
Sacramento: 13.0
vs
Phoenix: 11.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.2%
Sacramento: 86.3%
vs
Phoenix: 76.1%
Blocks (L5)
+40.7% more
Phoenix: 6.4
vs
Sacramento: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
110.1
104
SAC Score
112.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.3 / 39.4
53.6 / 30.2
Assists
21.3 / 25.6
38.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.8 / 6.4
8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 47.6
64.1 / 37.1
Free Throw %
86.3 / 76.1
70.6 / 73.1
Rebounding
43.5 / 44.0
45.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.7 / 7.2
7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 11.6
17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
PHX
SAC
PHX
ML
55%
55-45
57%
60-45
61%
50-32
51%
45-43
ATS
54%
52-45-3
58%
59-43-3
61%
50-32
51%
45-43
TTL
58%
57-42-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
82-0
100%
88-0
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