Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Lakers MEM @ LAL

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

7-4  |  Road

123
FINAL
Wed, Nov 13 • 10:00 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

6-4  |  Home

128
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
0%
📊
LAKERS
100%
GRIZZLIES --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Memphis)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

67.1%

Lakers Cover

32.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-7 points

27.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

22.2%

LAL By 1-7 points

19.5%

LAL By 8-14 points

8.7%

AI Model Projected Score
116.85
MEMPHIS
112.43
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
MEMPHIS
116
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Grizzlies (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.4
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 229.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MEM @ LAL 114 - 120
Jan 2, 2026 MEM @ LAL 121 - 128
Oct 31, 2025 LAL @ MEM 117 - 112
Mar 29, 2025 LAL @ MEM 134 - 127
Dec 15, 2024 MEM @ LAL 110 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.0% more
Memphis: 19.5 vs Los Angeles: 10.3
Blocks (L5) +43.2% more
Memphis: 9.2 vs Los Angeles: 5.3
Steals (L5) +32.4% more
Memphis: 10.0 vs Los Angeles: 6.8
Rebounding (L5) +22.6% more
Memphis: 49.7 vs Los Angeles: 38.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 116.9 123
LAL Score 112.4 128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 36.8 48.8 / 36.4
Assists 27.6 / 30.5 31.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.3 / 9.2 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 51.3 50.6 / 47.2
Free Throw % 82.0 / 82.4 68.8 / 81.8
Rebounding 38.5 / 49.7 42.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.8 / 10.0 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 19.5 18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
MEM
LAL
MEM
ML
61% 68-43
57% 59-44
54% 49-42
50% 41-41
ATS
61% 67-43-1
63% 65-38
54% 49-42
50% 41-41
TTL
61% 66-43-2
70% 71-31-1
100% 91-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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