ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
4-7 | Road
117
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
9-2 | Home
116
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
CELTICS
0%
HAWKS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -11.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
ATL By 1-7 points
8.6%
ATL By 8-14 points
2.4%
BOS By 1-7 points
20.9%
BOS By 8-14 points
27.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
113.2
ATLANTA
Boston
124.71
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Atlanta
121
ATLANTA
Boston
117
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Celtics (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.5
D
Sim
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 237.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
BOS @ ATL
102 - 112
Mar 27, 2026
ATL @ BOS
102 - 109
Jan 28, 2026
ATL @ BOS
117 - 106
Jan 17, 2026
BOS @ ATL
132 - 106
Jan 18, 2025
ATL @ BOS
119 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.7%
Boston: 83.9%
vs
Atlanta: 77.1%
Steals (L5)
+29.5% more
Atlanta: 9.9
vs
Boston: 7.0
Assists (L5)
+16.9% more
Atlanta: 29.5
vs
Boston: 24.5
Turnovers (L5)
+16.7% more
Atlanta: 15.0
vs
Boston: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
113.2
117
BOS Score
124.7
116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 34.7
40.0 / 31.3
Assists
24.5 / 29.5
28.0 / 35.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.9
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.1 / 46.0
50.7 / 50.5
Free Throw %
83.9 / 77.1
81.5 / 53.8
Rebounding
43.2 / 42.3
34.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.0 / 9.9
7.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 15.0
20.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATL
BOS
ATL
ML
57%
61-46
50%
52-52
53%
47-41
55%
48-40
ATS
59%
61-43-3
53%
55-48-1
53%
47-41
55%
48-40
TTL
56%
60-47
53%
55-48-1
100%
88-0
100%
88-0
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