DALLAS
STARSDAL
8-5-0 | Road
7
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
6-8-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Joel Blomqvist
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 1.01 | 0.952 | -- |
| Joel Blomqvist | None-None | 17.53 | 0.625 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.01 Ldr
GAA
17.53
0.952 Ldr
Save %
0.625
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
PENGUINS
100%
STARS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around DAL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
DAL By 1 goal
19.7%
DAL By 2-3 goals
31.3%
PIT By 1 goal
11.0%
PIT By 2-3 goals
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3.3
DALLAS
Pittsburgh
2.12
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stars (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
DAL @ PIT
6 - 3
Dec 7, 2025
PIT @ DAL
2 - 3
Apr 5, 2025
PIT @ DAL
5 - 3
Nov 11, 2024
DAL @ PIT
7 - 1
Mar 22, 2024
PIT @ DAL
2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.8%
Dallas: 56.1%
vs
Pittsburgh: 50.4%
Takeaways (L5)
+60.0% more
Pittsburgh: 7.6
vs
Dallas: 4.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+37.3% more
Pittsburgh: 14.8
vs
Dallas: 10.8
Hits (L5)
+17.2% more
Pittsburgh: 21.4
vs
Dallas: 18.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.3
7
PIT Score
2.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.8 / 10.8
16.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
50.4 / 56.1
49.0 / 51.0
Hits
21.4 / 18.3
16.0 / 12.0
Power Play %
12.4 / 10.6
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
33.1 / 32.9
21.0 / 40.0
Takeaways
7.6 / 4.8
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
DAL
PIT
DAL
ML
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
ATS
75%
3-1
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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