HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
5-4 | Road
101
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
4-6 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
PISTONS
0%
ROCKETS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
HOU By 1-7 points
22.4%
HOU By 8-14 points
11.5%
DET By 1-7 points
27.1%
DET By 8-14 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
108.78
HOUSTON
Detroit
111.25
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Houston
111
HOUSTON
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
HOU @ DET
111 - 104
Oct 24, 2025
DET @ HOU
115 - 111
Jan 20, 2025
DET @ HOU
107 - 96
Nov 10, 2024
HOU @ DET
101 - 99
Jan 12, 2024
HOU @ DET
112 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.0% more
Detroit: 6.2
vs
Houston: 4.3
Turnovers (L5)
+26.3% more
Detroit: 17.0
vs
Houston: 13.5
Assists (L5)
+18.8% more
Detroit: 26.8
vs
Houston: 22.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Detroit: 48.9%
vs
Houston: 46.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
108.8
101
DET Score
111.3
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 33.6
32.4 / 20.6
Assists
26.8 / 22.5
21.0 / 19.0
Blocks
6.2 / 4.3
6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 46.6
42.9 / 40.9
Free Throw %
69.6 / 71.4
69.6 / 75.0
Rebounding
46.7 / 47.6
46.0 / 53.0
Steals
5.8 / 7.5
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.0 / 13.5
18.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
HOU
DET
HOU
ML
55%
64-53
61%
69-44
49%
47-49
59%
51-35
ATS
53%
60-54-3
62%
70-43
49%
47-49
59%
51-35
TTL
60%
70-46-1
51%
58-55
100%
96-0
100%
86-0
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