CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
3-6 | Road
125
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
4-6 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
HAWKS
100%
BULLS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHI -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
CHI By 1-7 points
27.4%
CHI By 8-14 points
21.9%
ATL By 1-7 points
19.8%
ATL By 8-14 points
9.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
115.81
CHICAGO
Atlanta
111.63
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Chicago
107
CHICAGO
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulls
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulls (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 227.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 23, 2025
CHI @ ATL
126 - 123
Dec 21, 2025
CHI @ ATL
152 - 150
Oct 27, 2025
ATL @ CHI
123 - 128
Jan 15, 2025
ATL @ CHI
110 - 94
Dec 26, 2024
CHI @ ATL
133 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+42.8% more
Atlanta: 10.9
vs
Chicago: 7.6
Blocks (L5)
+28.0% more
Atlanta: 4.9
vs
Chicago: 3.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.5%
Atlanta: 79.1%
vs
Chicago: 71.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
115.8
125
ATL Score
111.6
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 37.3
31.0 / 33.3
Assists
28.8 / 28.7
31.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.9 / 3.8
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 47.0
46.1 / 50.0
Free Throw %
79.1 / 71.6
73.3 / 87.0
Rebounding
43.9 / 42.1
39.0 / 47.0
Steals
10.9 / 7.6
8.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 15.4
14.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CHI
ATL
CHI
ML
50%
52-52
56%
54-42
55%
48-40
57%
46-35
ATS
53%
55-48-1
65%
62-33-1
55%
48-40
57%
46-35
TTL
53%
55-48-1
58%
56-40
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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