CALGARY
FLAMESCGY
7-5-0 | Road
2
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
6-7-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Brayden Pachal
#94 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Pachal | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 1.85 | 0.923 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.85
--
Save %
0.923
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
SABRES
0%
FLAMES
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
CGY By 1 goal
14.3%
CGY By 2-3 goals
12.5%
BUF By 1 goal
19.4%
BUF By 2-3 goals
25.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Calgary
2.62
CALGARY
Buffalo
3.24
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Calgary
5
CALGARY
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.6
D
Sim
Flames (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 8, 2025
BUF @ CGY
4 - 7
Nov 19, 2025
CGY @ BUF
6 - 2
Jan 23, 2025
BUF @ CGY
2 - 5
Nov 9, 2024
CGY @ BUF
2 - 3
Mar 24, 2024
BUF @ CGY
4 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+6.1%
Buffalo: 25.3%
vs
Calgary: 19.2%
Takeaways (L5)
+27.4% more
Calgary: 6.2
vs
Buffalo: 4.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.8% more
Calgary: 33.1
vs
Buffalo: 28.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CGY Score
2.6
2
BUF Score
3.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.2 / 16.4
19.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
46.9 / 46.7
60.0 / 40.0
Hits
22.2 / 20.9
18.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
25.3 / 19.2
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.9 / 33.1
19.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 6.2
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
CGY
BUF
CGY
ML
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
ATS
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
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