DALLAS
STARSDAL
8-4-0 | Road
1
WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
13-1-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Connor Hellebuyck
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | -- |
| Connor Hellebuyck | None-None | 1.00 | 0.970 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00 Ldr
GAA
1.00
1.000 Ldr
Save %
0.970
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
JETS
0%
STARS
--
JETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Winnipeg)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WPG -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)
DAL By 1 goal
14.0%
DAL By 2-3 goals
12.0%
WPG By 1 goal
19.5%
WPG By 2-3 goals
26.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3.64
DALLAS
Winnipeg
4.31
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Winnipeg
4
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jets
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jets (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Jets (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
WPG @ DAL
0 - 3
Feb 2, 2026
WPG @ DAL
3 - 4
Dec 9, 2025
DAL @ WPG
4 - 3
Oct 9, 2025
DAL @ WPG
5 - 4
May 17, 2025
WPG @ DAL
1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+29.5% more
Winnipeg: 15.1
vs
Dallas: 11.6
Takeaways (L5)
+20.7% more
Winnipeg: 5.6
vs
Dallas: 4.6
Power Play % (L5)
+13.5%
Winnipeg: 29.3%
vs
Dallas: 15.8%
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.1%
Dallas: 57.3%
vs
Winnipeg: 52.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.6
1
WPG Score
4.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.1 / 11.6
17.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
52.2 / 57.3
46.2 / 53.8
Hits
18.4 / 18.4
18.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
29.3 / 15.8
40.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.8 / 32.9
25.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
5.6 / 4.6
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
DAL
WPG
DAL
ML
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
ATS
25%
1-3
0%
0-3
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
TTL
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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