WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
9-4-0 | Road
8
ST. LOUIS
BLUESSTL
7-7-0 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jordan Binnington
#50 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.00 | 0.960 | -- |
| Jordan Binnington | None-None | 8.00 | 0.704 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
8.00
0.960 Ldr
Save %
0.704
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
BLUES
0%
CAPITALS
--
BLUES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around STL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
WSH By 1 goal
16.7%
WSH By 2-3 goals
17.0%
STL By 1 goal
18.1%
STL By 2-3 goals
20.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.33
WASHINGTON
St. Louis
3.49
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blues
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blues
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blues (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Blues (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 24, 2026
WSH @ STL
0 - 3
Nov 5, 2025
STL @ WSH
1 - 6
Feb 27, 2025
STL @ WSH
5 - 2
Nov 9, 2024
WSH @ STL
8 - 1
Jan 20, 2024
WSH @ STL
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+33.9% more
St. Louis: 4.3
vs
Washington: 3.2
Hits (L5)
+9.2% more
St. Louis: 25.2
vs
Washington: 23.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+32.5% more
Washington: 31.5
vs
St. Louis: 21.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.7%
Washington: 48.5%
vs
St. Louis: 42.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.3
8
STL Score
3.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.1 / 18.3
7.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
42.7 / 48.5
53.8 / 46.2
Hits
25.2 / 23.1
25.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
3.4 / 5.3
0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
21.2 / 31.5
25.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 3.2
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
WSH
STL
WSH
ML
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
50%
1-1-1
33%
1-2
50%
1-1-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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