ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
4-5 | Road
121
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
3-6 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
PISTONS
100%
HAWKS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.6%
ATL By 8-14 points
17.7%
DET By 1-7 points
23.7%
DET By 8-14 points
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
108.81
ATLANTA
Detroit
107.31
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Atlanta
114
ATLANTA
Detroit
122
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.5
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 216.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
ATL @ DET
130 - 129
Dec 12, 2025
ATL @ DET
115 - 142
Dec 1, 2025
ATL @ DET
98 - 99
Nov 18, 2025
DET @ ATL
120 - 112
Feb 23, 2025
DET @ ATL
148 - 143
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+48.9% more
Atlanta: 10.3
vs
Detroit: 5.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.9%
Atlanta: 79.4%
vs
Detroit: 70.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Atlanta: 34.0%
vs
Detroit: 30.8%
Blocks (L5)
+37.8% more
Detroit: 5.3
vs
Atlanta: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
108.8
121
DET Score
107.3
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 34.0
39.4 / 41.7
Assists
26.7 / 28.2
27.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.8
8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 46.2
51.2 / 45.4
Free Throw %
70.5 / 79.4
67.7 / 78.3
Rebounding
47.5 / 43.9
45.0 / 44.0
Steals
5.3 / 10.3
7.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 14.1
21.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ATL
DET
ATL
ML
55%
64-53
50%
52-52
49%
47-49
55%
48-40
ATS
53%
60-54-3
53%
55-48-1
49%
47-49
55%
48-40
TTL
60%
70-46-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
96-0
100%
88-0
Contextual Game News
ATLAS League Launches to Crown World Champion in High School Bas…
Bill Self's Revamped Kansas Roster Built for Another National Ti…
Cal Bears' Injury Report: Eight Players Questionable for Virgini…
Hawks Look to Bounce Back Against Spurs in Preseason Clash
Phoenix Suns 2026-27 Season Preview: Can Devin Booker and the Re…