INDIANA
PACERSIND
4-4 | Road
83
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
3-5 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
HORNETS
0%
PACERS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
IND By 1-7 points
25.0%
IND By 8-14 points
14.7%
CHA By 1-7 points
25.7%
CHA By 8-14 points
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
114.68
INDIANA
Charlotte
115.06
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Indiana
115
INDIANA
Charlotte
109
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 229.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
IND @ CHA
108 - 129
Feb 26, 2026
CHA @ IND
133 - 109
Jan 8, 2026
IND @ CHA
114 - 112
Nov 19, 2025
CHA @ IND
118 - 127
Apr 2, 2025
CHA @ IND
105 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+13.2% more
Charlotte: 7.4
vs
Indiana: 6.5
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Charlotte: 14.3
vs
Indiana: 13.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.8%
Charlotte: 81.5%
vs
Indiana: 78.7%
Assists (L5)
+20.1% more
Indiana: 27.6
vs
Charlotte: 22.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
114.7
83
CHA Score
115.1
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 41.6
34.0 / 31.0
Assists
22.0 / 27.6
23.0 / 24.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.6
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 52.5
42.2 / 39.8
Free Throw %
81.5 / 78.7
83.3 / 57.1
Rebounding
42.3 / 41.6
56.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.4 / 6.5
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 13.0
15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
IND
CHA
IND
ML
61%
60-39
48%
47-50
48%
40-44
54%
45-38
ATS
60%
59-40
59%
57-40
48%
40-44
54%
45-38
TTL
58%
57-42
54%
52-45
100%
84-0
100%
83-0
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