PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
7-1 | Road
114
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
5-3 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
SUNS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
27.2%
PHX By 8-14 points
20.1%
DAL By 1-7 points
21.7%
DAL By 8-14 points
10.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
114.72
PHOENIX
Dallas
111.77
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Dallas
111
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Suns (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 226.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
DAL @ PHX
107 - 112
Feb 10, 2026
DAL @ PHX
111 - 120
Nov 12, 2025
PHX @ DAL
123 - 114
Mar 9, 2025
PHX @ DAL
125 - 116
Dec 27, 2024
DAL @ PHX
98 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+23.7% more
Phoenix: 5.9
vs
Dallas: 4.5
Turnovers (L5)
+8.2% more
Phoenix: 14.4
vs
Dallas: 13.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Phoenix: 38.2%
vs
Dallas: 34.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.0%
Phoenix: 79.0%
vs
Dallas: 76.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
114.7
114
DAL Score
111.8
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 38.2
33.3 / 38.5
Assists
28.1 / 27.3
18.0 / 26.0
Blocks
4.5 / 5.9
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 47.9
51.2 / 50.0
Free Throw %
76.0 / 79.0
90.9 / 72.2
Rebounding
44.5 / 46.7
39.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.2
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 14.4
11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
PHX
DAL
PHX
ML
62%
63-39
57%
60-45
54%
44-37
51%
45-43
ATS
67%
68-34
58%
59-43-3
54%
44-37
51%
45-43
TTL
59%
60-41-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Chicago Bulls Edge Phoenix Suns 124-117 in Preseason Opener
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
Phoenix Suns 2026-27 Season Preview: Can Devin Booker and the Re…