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MIAMI

HEATMIA

3-4  |  Road

122
FINAL
Fri, Nov 8 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

5-3  |  Home

135
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
HEAT --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Denver)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

37.1%

Nuggets Cover

62.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

MIA By 1-7 points

21.2%

MIA By 8-14 points

10.3%

DEN By 1-7 points

27.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

20.6%

AI Model Projected Score
109.91
MIAMI
113.2
DENVER
Simulated Score
109
MIAMI
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.3
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 29, 2025 DEN @ MIA 123 - 147
Nov 5, 2025 MIA @ DEN 112 - 122
Jan 17, 2025 DEN @ MIA 133 - 113
Nov 8, 2024 MIA @ DEN 122 - 135
Mar 13, 2024 DEN @ MIA 100 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.4% more
Denver: 16.3 vs Miami: 11.5
Blocks (L5) +39.7% more
Denver: 5.5 vs Miami: 4.0
Assists (L5) +23.5% more
Denver: 31.2 vs Miami: 25.3
Rebounding (L5) +11.7% more
Denver: 49.4 vs Miami: 44.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 109.9 122
DEN Score 113.2 135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.2 / 39.1 51.4 / 46.5
Assists 31.2 / 25.3 37.0 / 33.0
Blocks 5.5 / 4.0 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 43.7 61.7 / 48.9
Free Throw % 75.5 / 79.0 89.5 / 76.9
Rebounding 49.4 / 44.2 39.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.2 / 9.7 5.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 16.3 / 11.5 18.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIA
DEN
MIA
ML
54% 57-48
48% 46-50
55% 47-39
59% 48-34
ATS
63% 65-38-2
51% 49-47
55% 47-39
59% 48-34
TTL
54% 56-48-1
59% 57-39
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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