PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
5-8-0 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
9-3-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Joel Blomqvist
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Blomqvist | None-None | 2.01 | 0.941 | -- |
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 3.14 | 0.903 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.01 Ldr
GAA
3.14
0.941 Ldr
Save %
0.903
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
PENGUINS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
PIT By 1 goal
7.9%
PIT By 2-3 goals
4.8%
WSH By 1 goal
18.5%
WSH By 2-3 goals
35.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.1
PITTSBURGH
Washington
4.84
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.7
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
PIT @ WSH
3 - 5
Apr 12, 2026
PIT @ WSH
0 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
WSH @ PIT
6 - 3
Nov 6, 2025
WSH @ PIT
3 - 5
Apr 17, 2025
WSH @ PIT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+48.0% more
Washington: 19.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 13.2
Hits (L5)
+8.6% more
Washington: 24.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 22.6
Takeaways (L5)
+33.1% more
Pittsburgh: 6.4
vs
Washington: 4.3
Power Play % (L5)
+10.6%
Pittsburgh: 18.5%
vs
Washington: 7.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.1
4
WSH Score
4.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
19.5 / 13.2
16.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
47.3 / 50.9
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
24.6 / 22.6
20.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
791.0 / 1853.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.2 / 33.6
34.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 6.4
1.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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