Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Bears NE @ CHI

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

2-7  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Nov 10 • 1:00 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

4-4  |  Home

3
Key Game
Kevin Byard
KEY GAME

Kevin Byard

#31 | Safety
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Kevin Byard None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
PATRIOTS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.5 points (Chicago)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

16.8%

Bears Cover

83.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CHI -13.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

NE By 1-6 points

8.2%

NE By 7-13 points

5.0%

CHI By 1-6 points

13.2%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
12.64
NEW ENGLAND
26.12
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
24
NEW ENGLAND
17
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.5
D
Sim Patriots (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 10, 2024 NE @ CHI 19 - 3
Oct 24, 2022 CHI @ NE 33 - 14
Oct 21, 2018 NE @ CHI 38 - 31
Oct 26, 2014 CHI @ NE 23 - 51
Dec 12, 2010 NE @ CHI 36 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.1% more
Chicago: 123.7 vs New England: 98.9
Total Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Chicago: 301.4 vs New England: 274.8
Turnovers (L5) +62.1% more
New England: 1.6 vs Chicago: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 12.6 19
CHI Score 26.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 17.8 11.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 177.7 / 176.0 69.0 / 184.0
Rushing Yards 123.7 / 98.9 73.0 / 144.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.07 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 301.4 / 274.8 142.0 / 328.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 4.5 2.4 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
NE
CHI
NE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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