Home / NFL Projections NFL / 49ers @ Buccaneers SF @ TB

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

4-4  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Nov 10 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

4-5  |  Home

20
Key Game
Sam Okuayinonu
KEY GAME

Sam Okuayinonu

#91 | Defensive Tackle
@
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
Player
Sam Okuayinonu None-None
Chase McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
49ERS
0%
📊
BUCCANEERS
100%
49ERS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.9
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.9 points (San Francisco)
49ersSF (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

49ers Cover

76.0%

Buccaneers Cover

24.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SF -9.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-6 points

15.3%

SF By 7-13 points

19.7%

TB By 1-6 points

10.8%

TB By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
31.98
SAN FRANCISCO
22.07
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
27
SAN FRANCISCO
24
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 49ers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.9
D
Sim 49ers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 54.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 12, 2025 SF @ TB 19 - 30
Nov 10, 2024 SF @ TB 23 - 20
Nov 19, 2023 TB @ SF 14 - 27
Dec 11, 2022 TB @ SF 7 - 35
Sep 8, 2019 SF @ TB 31 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.5% more
San Francisco: 173.0 vs Tampa Bay: 123.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.0% more
San Francisco: 6.7 vs Tampa Bay: 6.0
Turnovers (L5) +14.4% more
Tampa Bay: 1.4 vs San Francisco: 1.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.5 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 32.0 23
TB Score 22.1 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 20.2 18.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 263.8 / 243.2 105.0 / 338.0
Rushing Yards 123.7 / 173.0 110.0 / 75.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 387.5 / 416.2 215.0 / 413.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.0 / 6.7 3.7 / 6.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
SF
TB
SF
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 1 hour, 8 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 1 hour, 8 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 7 hours, 4 minutes ago
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 13 hours, 26 minutes ago
Buccaneers Safety Antoine Winfield Sidelined, Adding to Tampa Ba…
yardbarker 19 hours, 31 minutes ago