Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Jaguars MIN @ JAX

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

6-2  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sun, Nov 10 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

2-7  |  Home

7
Key Game
Harrison Smith
KEY GAME

Harrison Smith

#22 | Safety
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Harrison Smith None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
0%
📊
JAGUARS
100%
VIKINGS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Minnesota)
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

59.8%

Jaguars Cover

40.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIN -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-6 points

17.0%

MIN By 7-13 points

17.8%

JAX By 1-6 points

15.0%

JAX By 7-13 points

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
30.38
MINNESOTA
26.9
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
27
MINNESOTA
24
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vikings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.5
D
Sim Vikings (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 10, 2024 MIN @ JAX 12 - 7
Dec 6, 2020 JAX @ MIN 24 - 27
Dec 11, 2016 MIN @ JAX 25 - 16
Sep 9, 2012 JAX @ MIN 23 - 26
Nov 23, 2008 MIN @ JAX 30 - 12
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +17.3% more
Minnesota: 21.4 vs Jacksonville: 17.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Minnesota: 110.1 vs Jacksonville: 96.7
Total Yards (L5) +10.9% more
Minnesota: 349.8 vs Jacksonville: 311.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Minnesota: 239.7 vs Jacksonville: 215.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 30.4 12
JAX Score 26.9 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 21.4 10.0 / 28.0
Net Passing Yards 215.0 / 239.7 87.0 / 233.0
Rushing Yards 96.7 / 110.1 56.0 / 169.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.71
Total Yards 311.7 / 349.8 143.0 / 402.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.7 3.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.8 3.3 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
MIN
JAX
MIN
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
TTL
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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