NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
5-6-0 | Road
4
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
6-6-0 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Semyon Varlamov
#40 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Artem Zub
#2 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov | None-None | 2.00 | 0.933 | -- |
| Artem Zub | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00
GAA
--
0.933
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
SENATORS
0%
ISLANDERS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
NYI By 1 goal
13.7%
NYI By 2-3 goals
11.6%
OTT By 1 goal
19.6%
OTT By 2-3 goals
26.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.03
NEW YORK
Ottawa
3.75
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Senators
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
OTT @ NYI
3 - 0
Mar 19, 2026
NYI @ OTT
2 - 3
Oct 18, 2025
NYI @ OTT
5 - 4
Jan 14, 2025
OTT @ NYI
2 - 0
Dec 8, 2024
NYI @ OTT
4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+50.5% more
Ottawa: 29.9
vs
New York: 19.9
Takeaways (L5)
+57.8% more
New York: 7.2
vs
Ottawa: 3.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+2.2%
New York: 55.6%
vs
Ottawa: 53.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
3.0
4
OTT Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.6 / 14.1
15.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
53.4 / 55.6
49.1 / 50.9
Hits
29.9 / 19.9
31.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
13.7 / 14.9
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
33.4 / 31.5
30.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
3.1 / 7.2
13.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
NYI
OTT
NYI
ML
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
TTL
67%
2-1
100%
2-0-1
67%
2-1
100%
2-0-1
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