ORLANDO
MAGICORL
3-5 | Road
111
INDIANA
PACERSIND
3-4 | Home
118
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
PACERS
0%
MAGIC
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
215.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
ORL By 1-7 points
19.3%
ORL By 8-14 points
8.6%
IND By 1-7 points
27.3%
IND By 8-14 points
22.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
105.36
ORLANDO
Indiana
109.86
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Orlando
103
ORLANDO
Indiana
108
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 215.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
IND @ ORL
128 - 126
Jan 4, 2026
IND @ ORL
127 - 135
Dec 31, 2025
ORL @ IND
112 - 110
Apr 11, 2025
ORL @ IND
129 - 115
Nov 13, 2024
IND @ ORL
90 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+39.1% more
Indiana: 30.8
vs
Orlando: 22.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+15.7%
Indiana: 39.2%
vs
Orlando: 23.6%
Field Goal % (L5)
+12.8%
Indiana: 51.8%
vs
Orlando: 39.0%
Steals (L5)
+36.5% more
Orlando: 9.9
vs
Indiana: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
105.4
111
IND Score
109.9
118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 23.6
46.2 / 28.0
Assists
30.8 / 22.2
21.0 / 26.0
Blocks
3.9 / 5.2
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
51.8 / 39.0
53.9 / 51.2
Free Throw %
71.8 / 79.2
92.3 / 76.9
Rebounding
44.4 / 42.0
36.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.3 / 9.9
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 16.1
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
ORL
IND
ORL
ML
48%
47-50
61%
65-42
54%
45-38
56%
51-40
ATS
59%
57-40
64%
68-38-1
54%
45-38
56%
51-40
TTL
54%
52-45
57%
61-46
100%
83-0
100%
91-0
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