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LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

4-3  |  Road

114
FINAL
Wed, Nov 6 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

4-4  |  Home

131
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
LAKERS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

57.1%

Grizzlies Cover

42.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

26.7%

LAL By 8-14 points

18.2%

MEM By 1-7 points

23.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
111.23
LOS ANGELES
109.44
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
114
LOS ANGELES
119
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 220.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 MEM @ LAL 114 - 120
Jan 2, 2026 MEM @ LAL 121 - 128
Oct 31, 2025 LAL @ MEM 117 - 112
Mar 29, 2025 LAL @ MEM 134 - 127
Dec 15, 2024 MEM @ LAL 110 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +3.1%
Los Angeles: 79.7% vs Memphis: 76.6%
Blocks (L5) +104.0% more
Memphis: 6.1 vs Los Angeles: 3.0
Turnovers (L5) +18.5% more
Memphis: 16.5 vs Los Angeles: 13.9
Rebounding (L5) +18.2% more
Memphis: 48.0 vs Los Angeles: 40.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 111.2 114
MEM Score 109.4 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 34.3 50.0 / 31.3
Assists 30.4 / 26.8 28.0 / 23.0
Blocks 6.1 / 3.0 6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.7 / 45.9 51.6 / 44.1
Free Throw % 76.6 / 79.7 78.3 / 81.0
Rebounding 48.0 / 40.6 50.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.0 / 7.0 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 13.9 18.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
0%TICKETS100%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
LAL
MEM
LAL
ML
57% 59-44
61% 68-43
50% 41-41
54% 49-42
ATS
63% 65-38
61% 67-43-1
50% 41-41
54% 49-42
TTL
70% 71-31-1
61% 66-43-2
100% 82-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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