CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
3-4 | Road
99
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
4-3 | Home
119
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
BULLS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.6
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.6 points (Dallas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -12.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
CHI By 1-7 points
7.3%
CHI By 8-14 points
1.9%
DAL By 1-7 points
19.2%
DAL By 8-14 points
27.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
109.14
CHICAGO
Dallas
121.72
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Chicago
112
CHICAGO
Dallas
107
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.6
D
Sim
Bulls (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 230.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
CHI @ DAL
128 - 149
Jan 10, 2026
DAL @ CHI
107 - 125
Mar 29, 2025
DAL @ CHI
120 - 119
Nov 6, 2024
CHI @ DAL
99 - 119
Mar 11, 2024
DAL @ CHI
127 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Dallas: 48.4%
vs
Chicago: 44.7%
Assists (L5)
+13.6% more
Chicago: 29.6
vs
Dallas: 25.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.9%
Chicago: 78.4%
vs
Dallas: 73.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Chicago: 38.3%
vs
Dallas: 36.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
109.1
99
DAL Score
121.7
119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 38.3
31.6 / 28.6
Assists
25.6 / 29.6
33.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.6
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 44.7
48.4 / 41.9
Free Throw %
73.5 / 78.4
81.0 / 65.2
Rebounding
43.3 / 45.1
47.0 / 51.0
Steals
6.8 / 6.3
11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 13.4
15.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
Advantage
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
Advantage
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
CHI
DAL
CHI
ML
62%
63-39
56%
54-42
54%
44-37
57%
46-35
ATS
67%
68-34
65%
62-33-1
54%
44-37
57%
46-35
TTL
59%
60-41-1
58%
56-40
100%
81-0
100%
81-0
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