MIAMI
HEATMIA
3-3 | Road
112
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
6-1 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
SUNS
0%
HEAT
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.9
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -5.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
MIA By 1-7 points
17.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
7.0%
PHX By 1-7 points
26.9%
PHX By 8-14 points
24.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
107.62
MIAMI
Phoenix
113.49
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Miami
MIAMI
Phoenix
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.9
D
Sim
Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 221.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
MIA @ PHX
111 - 102
Jan 13, 2026
PHX @ MIA
121 - 127
Dec 7, 2024
PHX @ MIA
111 - 121
Nov 6, 2024
MIA @ PHX
112 - 115
Jan 29, 2024
PHX @ MIA
118 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+33.7% more
Phoenix: 5.9
vs
Miami: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.3%
Phoenix: 82.3%
vs
Miami: 71.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+11.1% more
Phoenix: 13.6
vs
Miami: 12.3
Assists (L5)
+8.8% more
Phoenix: 26.5
vs
Miami: 24.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
107.6
112
PHX Score
113.5
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 39.5
41.9 / 38.2
Assists
26.5 / 24.4
29.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.9 / 4.4
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 43.7
50.0 / 43.5
Free Throw %
82.3 / 71.0
72.2 / 95.0
Rebounding
47.1 / 44.9
46.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.7 / 8.6
5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 12.3
16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
MIA
PHX
MIA
ML
57%
60-45
48%
46-50
51%
45-43
59%
48-34
ATS
58%
59-43-3
51%
49-47
51%
45-43
59%
48-34
TTL
59%
61-42-2
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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