TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
2-6 | Road
107
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
4-3 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
KINGS
0%
RAPTORS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
TOR By 1-7 points
14.7%
TOR By 8-14 points
5.4%
SAC By 1-7 points
25.9%
SAC By 8-14 points
25.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
105.92
TORONTO
Sacramento
113.3
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Toronto
112
TORONTO
Sacramento
109
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kings
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kings (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.4
D
Sim
Raptors (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
SAC @ TOR
123 - 115
Jan 21, 2026
TOR @ SAC
122 - 109
Oct 8, 2025
TOR @ SAC
130 - 122
Nov 6, 2024
TOR @ SAC
107 - 122
Nov 2, 2024
SAC @ TOR
128 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.4%
Sacramento: 82.9%
vs
Toronto: 72.4%
Assists (L5)
+29.0% more
Toronto: 34.1
vs
Sacramento: 24.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Toronto: 34.9%
vs
Sacramento: 32.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
105.9
107
SAC Score
113.3
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 34.9
28.6 / 29.4
Assists
24.2 / 34.1
26.0 / 25.0
Blocks
4.3 / 4.3
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
48.6 / 47.8
46.7 / 48.9
Free Throw %
82.9 / 72.4
87.5 / 73.3
Rebounding
44.1 / 44.2
47.0 / 34.0
Steals
9.4 / 10.0
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 15.6
10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
TOR
SAC
TOR
ML
55%
55-45
55%
57-47
61%
50-32
55%
48-39
ATS
54%
52-45-3
61%
62-40-2
61%
50-32
55%
48-39
TTL
58%
57-42-1
60%
62-42
100%
82-0
100%
87-0
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