OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
6-5-0 | Road
1
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
4-7-0 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 5.00 | 0.853 | -- |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 1.00 | 0.974 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.00
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.853
Save %
Ldr 0.974
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
SABRES
100%
SENATORS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
19.3%
OTT By 2-3 goals
33.4%
BUF By 1 goal
9.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
6.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
4.11
OTTAWA
Buffalo
2.7
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Buffalo
5
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.4
D
Sim
Sabres (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
BUF @ OTT
1 - 4
Dec 23, 2025
BUF @ OTT
3 - 2
Oct 15, 2025
OTT @ BUF
4 - 8
Apr 1, 2025
BUF @ OTT
5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025
OTT @ BUF
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+31.7% more
Ottawa: 27.3
vs
Buffalo: 18.7
Power Play % (L5)
+7.5%
Ottawa: 20.6%
vs
Buffalo: 13.1%
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.9%
Ottawa: 51.8%
vs
Buffalo: 44.9%
Takeaways (L5)
+36.7% more
Buffalo: 4.9
vs
Ottawa: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
4.1
1
BUF Score
2.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.1 / 14.9
11.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
44.9 / 51.8
43.5 / 56.5
Hits
18.7 / 27.3
37.0 / 35.0
Power Play %
13.1 / 20.6
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
31.5 / 31.1
34.0 / 38.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 3.6
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
OTT
BUF
OTT
ML
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
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