PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
5-7-0 | Road
3
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
4-6-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 2.77 | 0.914 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.77
--
Save %
0.914
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
100%
ISLANDERS
0%
PENGUINS
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
PIT By 1 goal
9.3%
PIT By 2-3 goals
6.2%
NYI By 1 goal
19.2%
NYI By 2-3 goals
34.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.5
PITTSBURGH
New York
3.98
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Islanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.5
D
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
PIT @ NYI
8 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
PIT @ NYI
4 - 5
Oct 9, 2025
NYI @ PIT
3 - 4
Mar 18, 2025
NYI @ PIT
4 - 2
Dec 29, 2024
NYI @ PIT
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+88.2% more
New York: 7.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+9.9% more
New York: 34.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 31.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.5%
New York: 57.9%
vs
Pittsburgh: 54.5%
Power Play % (L5)
+19.4%
Pittsburgh: 29.2%
vs
New York: 9.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.5
3
NYI Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.2 / 15.6
14.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
57.9 / 54.5
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
19.3 / 18.4
21.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
9.8 / 29.2
25.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
34.3 / 31.2
26.0 / 35.0
Takeaways
7.8 / 4.2
6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
PIT
NYI
PIT
ML
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
2-0-1
25%
1-3
100%
2-0-1
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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