LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
4-2 | Road
103
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
2-5 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
PISTONS
100%
LAKERS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.2 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -8.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)
LAL By 1-7 points
25.1%
LAL By 8-14 points
26.4%
DET By 1-7 points
13.3%
DET By 8-14 points
4.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
107.85
LOS ANGELES
Detroit
99.6
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
112
LOS ANGELES
Detroit
116
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lakers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lakers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.3
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 207.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 23, 2026
LAL @ DET
110 - 113
Dec 30, 2025
DET @ LAL
128 - 106
Dec 23, 2024
DET @ LAL
117 - 114
Nov 4, 2024
LAL @ DET
103 - 115
Feb 13, 2024
DET @ LAL
111 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.4% more
Los Angeles: 6.5
vs
Detroit: 5.1
Assists (L5)
+10.6% more
Los Angeles: 26.3
vs
Detroit: 23.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
Los Angeles: 82.6%
vs
Detroit: 78.2%
Blocks (L5)
+61.6% more
Detroit: 6.4
vs
Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAL Score
107.9
103
DET Score
99.6
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 33.5
23.5 / 36.0
Assists
23.5 / 26.3
22.0 / 28.0
Blocks
6.4 / 4.0
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.1 / 47.1
46.9 / 43.5
Free Throw %
78.2 / 82.6
77.3 / 74.1
Rebounding
44.9 / 42.4
55.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.1 / 6.5
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
19.5 / 14.4
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
LAL
DET
LAL
ML
55%
64-53
61%
68-43
49%
47-49
54%
49-42
ATS
53%
60-54-3
61%
67-43-1
49%
47-49
54%
49-42
TTL
60%
70-46-1
61%
66-43-2
100%
96-0
100%
91-0
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