Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Hawks BOS @ ATL

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

6-1  |  Road

123
FINAL
Mon, Nov 4 • 7:45 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

3-4  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
HAWKS
100%
CELTICS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 HawksATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

55.6%

Hawks Cover

44.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

26.5%

BOS By 8-14 points

17.6%

ATL By 1-7 points

23.8%

ATL By 8-14 points

13.1%

AI Model Projected Score
117.73
BOSTON
116.32
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
104
BOSTON
109
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 234.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 BOS @ ATL 102 - 112
Mar 27, 2026 ATL @ BOS 102 - 109
Jan 28, 2026 ATL @ BOS 117 - 106
Jan 17, 2026 BOS @ ATL 132 - 106
Jan 18, 2025 ATL @ BOS 119 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +10.2% more
Boston: 4.6 vs Atlanta: 4.1
Assists (L5) +25.8% more
Atlanta: 28.7 vs Boston: 22.8
Turnovers (L5) +24.2% more
Atlanta: 15.8 vs Boston: 12.7
Steals (L5) +23.4% more
Atlanta: 9.6 vs Boston: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 117.7 123
ATL Score 116.3 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.3 / 34.1 19.4 / 32.7
Assists 28.7 / 22.8 23.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.1 / 4.6 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 45.0 41.6 / 48.5
Free Throw % 83.5 / 84.4 81.3 / 69.2
Rebounding 41.3 / 43.4 43.0 / 50.0
Steals 9.6 / 7.8 9.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 12.7 20.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
ATL
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
ATL
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
BOS
ATL
BOS
ML
50% 52-52
57% 61-46
55% 48-40
53% 47-41
ATS
53% 55-48-1
59% 61-43-3
55% 48-40
53% 47-41
TTL
53% 55-48-1
56% 60-47
100% 88-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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