SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
3-3 | Road
111
MIAMI
HEATMIA
3-2 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
HEAT
0%
KINGS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.9
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -4.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
SAC By 1-7 points
18.8%
SAC By 8-14 points
8.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
27.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
22.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
105.78
SACRAMENTO
Miami
110.64
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Sacramento
111
SACRAMENTO
Miami
117
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.9
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 216.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 20, 2026
MIA @ SAC
130 - 117
Dec 6, 2025
SAC @ MIA
127 - 111
Jan 6, 2025
MIA @ SAC
118 - 123
Nov 4, 2024
SAC @ MIA
111 - 110
Feb 26, 2024
MIA @ SAC
121 - 110
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
Miami: 38.4%
vs
Sacramento: 29.7%
Steals (L5)
+27.9% more
Sacramento: 11.6
vs
Miami: 8.4
Blocks (L5)
+19.0% more
Sacramento: 4.5
vs
Miami: 3.6
Turnovers (L5)
+16.0% more
Sacramento: 15.4
vs
Miami: 12.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
105.8
111
MIA Score
110.6
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 29.7
41.7 / 37.0
Assists
24.6 / 24.8
24.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.6 / 4.5
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 47.3
43.5 / 51.2
Free Throw %
71.5 / 80.9
70.0 / 86.7
Rebounding
49.3 / 46.6
36.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.4 / 11.6
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 15.4
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
SAC
MIA
SAC
ML
48%
46-50
55%
55-45
59%
48-34
61%
50-32
ATS
51%
49-47
54%
52-45-3
59%
48-34
61%
50-32
TTL
59%
57-39
58%
57-42-1
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
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