Home / NBA Projections NBA / Hornets @ Timberwolves CHA @ MIN

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

2-4  |  Road

93
FINAL
Mon, Nov 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

3-3  |  Home

114
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
HORNETS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Minnesota)
HornetsCHA (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

49.6%

Timberwolves Cover

50.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

CHA By 1-7 points

25.2%

CHA By 8-14 points

15.1%

MIN By 1-7 points

25.4%

MIN By 8-14 points

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
114.71
CHARLOTTE
114.81
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
111
CHARLOTTE
106
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hornets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.1
D
Sim Hornets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 229.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 5, 2026 CHA @ MIN 122 - 108
Nov 1, 2025 MIN @ CHA 122 - 105
Mar 5, 2025 MIN @ CHA 125 - 110
Nov 4, 2024 CHA @ MIN 93 - 114
Jan 22, 2024 CHA @ MIN 128 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.6% more
Minnesota: 27.0 vs Charlotte: 23.5
Free Throw % (L5) +7.1%
Minnesota: 74.7% vs Charlotte: 67.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Minnesota: 48.5% vs Charlotte: 45.4%
Steals (L5) +13.2% more
Charlotte: 7.9 vs Minnesota: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHA Score 114.7 93
MIN Score 114.8 114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 39.8 47.4 / 23.8
Assists 27.0 / 23.5 23.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.4 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.5 / 45.4 49.4 / 39.8
Free Throw % 74.7 / 67.7 69.2 / 81.3
Rebounding 38.3 / 41.0 45.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.8 / 7.9 7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 16.2 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CHA
MIN
CHA
ML
54% 63-53
61% 60-39
54% 50-43
48% 40-44
ATS
58% 67-49
60% 59-40
54% 50-43
48% 40-44
TTL
63% 72-43-1
58% 57-42
100% 93-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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