INDIANA
PACERSIND
2-4 | Road
134
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
4-2 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
PACERS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
26.9%
IND By 8-14 points
24.2%
DAL By 1-7 points
17.0%
DAL By 8-14 points
6.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
112.83
INDIANA
Dallas
106.88
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Indiana
110
INDIANA
Dallas
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 219.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
DAL @ IND
134 - 130
Oct 29, 2025
IND @ DAL
105 - 107
Mar 19, 2025
DAL @ IND
131 - 135
Nov 4, 2024
IND @ DAL
134 - 127
Mar 5, 2024
IND @ DAL
137 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.5% more
Indiana: 31.2
vs
Dallas: 23.9
Turnovers (L5)
+11.9% more
Indiana: 15.9
vs
Dallas: 14.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.1%
Indiana: 75.3%
vs
Dallas: 70.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Indiana: 38.5%
vs
Dallas: 33.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
112.8
134
DAL Score
106.9
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 38.5
41.7 / 40.6
Assists
23.9 / 31.2
29.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.7 / 4.3
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 49.3
51.7 / 56.8
Free Throw %
70.2 / 75.3
80.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
45.9 / 43.6
38.0 / 46.0
Steals
8.2 / 6.9
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 15.9
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
DAL
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
IND
DAL
IND
ML
62%
63-39
48%
47-50
54%
44-37
54%
45-38
ATS
67%
68-34
59%
57-40
54%
44-37
54%
45-38
TTL
59%
60-41-1
54%
52-45
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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