TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
2-5 | Road
119
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
3-3 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
NUGGETS
0%
RAPTORS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
212.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
TOR By 1-7 points
23.7%
TOR By 8-14 points
13.0%
DEN By 1-7 points
26.5%
DEN By 8-14 points
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
105.49
TORONTO
Denver
106.96
DENVER
Simulated Score
Toronto
112
TORONTO
Denver
117
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.5
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 212.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 20, 2026
TOR @ DEN
115 - 121
Dec 31, 2025
DEN @ TOR
106 - 103
Oct 6, 2025
DEN @ TOR
112 - 108
Nov 4, 2024
TOR @ DEN
119 - 121
Oct 28, 2024
DEN @ TOR
127 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+12.0% more
Denver: 10.1
vs
Toronto: 9.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Denver: 42.7%
vs
Toronto: 35.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Denver: 77.3%
vs
Toronto: 75.3%
Blocks (L5)
+41.4% more
Toronto: 5.0
vs
Denver: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
105.5
119
DEN Score
107.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.7 / 35.7
32.3 / 33.3
Assists
30.2 / 32.1
29.0 / 38.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.0
10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 48.9
49.4 / 45.6
Free Throw %
77.3 / 75.3
76.3 / 66.7
Rebounding
47.9 / 45.8
44.0 / 41.0
Steals
10.1 / 9.0
9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 16.4
17.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
TOR
DEN
TOR
ML
54%
57-48
55%
57-47
55%
47-39
55%
48-39
ATS
63%
65-38-2
61%
62-40-2
55%
47-39
55%
48-39
TTL
54%
56-48-1
60%
62-42
100%
86-0
100%
87-0
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