Home / NBA Projections NBA / Magic @ Mavericks ORL @ DAL

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

3-3  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sun, Nov 3 • 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

3-2  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
MAGIC --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.9
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Dallas)
MagicORL (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Magic Cover

31.1%

Mavericks Cover

68.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -4.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

ORL By 1-7 points

18.6%

ORL By 8-14 points

8.1%

DAL By 1-7 points

27.3%

DAL By 8-14 points

22.9%

AI Model Projected Score
103.46
ORLANDO
108.4
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
ORLANDO
116
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.9
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 211.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 3, 2026 ORL @ DAL 138 - 127
Mar 5, 2026 DAL @ ORL 114 - 115
Mar 27, 2025 DAL @ ORL 101 - 92
Nov 3, 2024 ORL @ DAL 85 - 108
Jan 29, 2024 ORL @ DAL 129 - 131
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Dallas: 34.7% vs Orlando: 32.2%
Turnovers (L5) +20.3% more
Orlando: 14.5 vs Dallas: 11.5
Steals (L5) +10.2% more
Orlando: 9.2 vs Dallas: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORL Score 103.5 85
DAL Score 108.4 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.7 / 32.2 31.3 / 19.5
Assists 23.4 / 25.3 25.0 / 19.0
Blocks 6.0 / 5.9 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 44.6 49.4 / 33.3
Free Throw % 74.8 / 74.8 60.9 / 78.9
Rebounding 42.4 / 42.3 53.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.3 / 9.2 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 14.5 19.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL Advantage
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL Advantage
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
ORL
DAL
ORL
ML
62% 63-39
61% 65-42
54% 44-37
56% 51-40
ATS
67% 68-34
64% 68-38-1
54% 44-37
56% 51-40
TTL
59% 60-41-1
57% 61-46
100% 81-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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