WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
8-2-0 | Road
2
CAROLINA
HURRICANESCAR
7-2-0 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Pyotr Kochetkov
#52 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 3.07 | 0.932 | -- |
| Pyotr Kochetkov | None-None | 2.00 | 0.905 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.07
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.932 Ldr
Save %
0.905
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
HURRICANES
0%
CAPITALS
--
HURRICANES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around CAR -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)
WSH By 1 goal
15.5%
WSH By 2-3 goals
14.4%
CAR By 1 goal
18.9%
CAR By 2-3 goals
23.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.33
WASHINGTON
Carolina
4.74
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Carolina
4
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hurricanes
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hurricanes (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Hurricanes (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 2, 2026
WSH @ CAR
5 - 2
Jan 31, 2026
CAR @ WSH
3 - 4
Dec 11, 2025
CAR @ WSH
3 - 2
Nov 11, 2025
WSH @ CAR
4 - 1
May 15, 2025
CAR @ WSH
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+93.2% more
Carolina: 8.0
vs
Washington: 4.1
Power Play % (L5)
+27.9%
Carolina: 33.2%
vs
Washington: 5.3%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+19.5% more
Carolina: 36.3
vs
Washington: 30.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+1.6%
Carolina: 47.3%
vs
Washington: 45.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.3
2
CAR Score
4.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
9.7 / 21.5
11.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
47.3 / 45.7
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
16.6 / 19.8
10.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
33.2 / 5.3
0.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
36.3 / 30.4
45.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
8.0 / 4.1
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
WSH
CAR
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
TTL
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
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