Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Hornets BOS @ CHA

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

5-1  |  Road

113
FINAL
Sat, Nov 2 • 6:00 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

2-3  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
CELTICS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.8 points (Boston)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 HornetsCHA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

72.0%

Hornets Cover

28.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS -5.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-7 points

26.9%

BOS By 8-14 points

24.1%

CHA By 1-7 points

17.2%

CHA By 8-14 points

7.0%

AI Model Projected Score
118.59
BOSTON
112.77
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
112
BOSTON
105
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.8
D
Sim Celtics (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 CHA @ BOS 102 - 113
Mar 29, 2026 BOS @ CHA 114 - 99
Mar 4, 2026 CHA @ BOS 118 - 89
Apr 13, 2025 CHA @ BOS 86 - 93
Apr 11, 2025 CHA @ BOS 94 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.9% more
Boston: 9.7 vs Charlotte: 6.8
Free Throw % (L5) +13.8%
Boston: 82.0% vs Charlotte: 68.1%
Turnovers (L5) +53.5% more
Charlotte: 17.7 vs Boston: 11.6
Blocks (L5) +24.7% more
Charlotte: 6.1 vs Boston: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 118.6 113
CHA Score 112.8 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.5 / 35.7 40.5 / 30.8
Assists 23.3 / 22.7 24.0 / 23.0
Blocks 6.1 / 4.9 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 45.5 44.0 / 43.9
Free Throw % 68.1 / 82.0 66.7 / 89.3
Rebounding 44.5 / 43.1 34.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.8 / 9.7 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 17.7 / 11.6 13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
BOS
CHA
BOS
ML
61% 60-39
57% 61-46
48% 40-44
53% 47-41
ATS
60% 59-40
59% 61-43-3
48% 40-44
53% 47-41
TTL
58% 57-42
56% 60-47
100% 84-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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