PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
2-4 | Road
97
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
4-1 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
SUNS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.7
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.7 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -8.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
POR By 1-7 points
12.6%
POR By 8-14 points
4.2%
PHX By 1-7 points
24.6%
PHX By 8-14 points
26.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
101.01
PORTLAND
Phoenix
109.73
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Portland
112
PORTLAND
Phoenix
119
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.7
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 210.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
POR @ PHX
114 - 110
Feb 22, 2026
POR @ PHX
92 - 77
Feb 3, 2026
PHX @ POR
130 - 125
Nov 18, 2025
PHX @ POR
127 - 110
Feb 3, 2025
PHX @ POR
119 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+17.8% more
Phoenix: 27.2
vs
Portland: 23.1
Blocks (L5)
+10.5% more
Phoenix: 6.3
vs
Portland: 5.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.1%
Phoenix: 82.5%
vs
Portland: 76.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Phoenix: 48.3%
vs
Portland: 44.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
101.0
97
PHX Score
109.7
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 36.4
32.7 / 32.6
Assists
27.2 / 23.1
29.0 / 17.0
Blocks
6.3 / 5.7
8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 44.5
37.6 / 33.3
Free Throw %
82.5 / 76.4
72.7 / 81.8
Rebounding
42.2 / 43.4
63.0 / 56.0
Steals
8.7 / 8.2
4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 16.9
14.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
POR
PHX
POR
ML
57%
60-45
53%
56-49
51%
45-43
55%
49-40
ATS
58%
59-43-3
62%
65-39-1
51%
45-43
55%
49-40
TTL
59%
61-42-2
56%
58-46-1
100%
88-0
100%
89-0
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