Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Raptors LAL @ TOR

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

3-2  |  Road

131
FINAL
Fri, Nov 1 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

1-4  |  Home

125
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
LAKERS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
207.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Los Angeles)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

62.2%

Raptors Cover

37.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LAL -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

LAL By 1-7 points

27.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

20.3%

TOR By 1-7 points

21.5%

TOR By 8-14 points

10.5%

AI Model Projected Score
105.3
LOS ANGELES
102.2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
112
LOS ANGELES
116
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lakers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 207.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 18, 2026 TOR @ LAL 93 - 110
Dec 4, 2025 LAL @ TOR 123 - 120
Nov 10, 2024 TOR @ LAL 103 - 123
Nov 1, 2024 LAL @ TOR 131 - 125
Apr 2, 2024 LAL @ TOR 128 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.1%
Los Angeles: 79.9% vs Toronto: 73.9%
Blocks (L5) +73.3% more
Toronto: 6.0 vs Los Angeles: 3.4
Assists (L5) +26.5% more
Toronto: 31.5 vs Los Angeles: 24.9
Steals (L5) +25.7% more
Toronto: 8.5 vs Los Angeles: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 105.3 131
TOR Score 102.2 125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.6 / 33.0 28.6 / 34.4
Assists 31.5 / 24.9 35.0 / 29.0
Blocks 6.0 / 3.4 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 46.9 48.6 / 47.7
Free Throw % 73.9 / 79.9 84.6 / 87.8
Rebounding 46.6 / 42.1 44.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.5 / 6.8 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 17.2 / 16.6 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
LAL
TOR
LAL
ML
55% 57-47
61% 68-43
55% 48-39
54% 49-42
ATS
61% 62-40-2
61% 67-43-1
55% 48-39
54% 49-42
TTL
60% 62-42
61% 66-43-2
100% 87-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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