SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
2-2 | Road
123
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
2-3 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
HAWKS
100%
KINGS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
204.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.2
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.2 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -5.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
SAC By 1-7 points
27.2%
SAC By 8-14 points
23.3%
ATL By 1-7 points
18.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
104.89
SACRAMENTO
Atlanta
99.69
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Sacramento
SACRAMENTO
Atlanta
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kings (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.2
D
Sim
Loss
Proj Spread: 0.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 204.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Loss
Proj Total: 0.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 28, 2026
SAC @ ATL
113 - 123
Nov 12, 2025
ATL @ SAC
133 - 100
Nov 18, 2024
ATL @ SAC
109 - 108
Nov 1, 2024
SAC @ ATL
123 - 115
Jan 22, 2024
ATL @ SAC
107 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+13.2% more
Sacramento: 5.8
vs
Atlanta: 5.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Sacramento: 47.7%
vs
Atlanta: 46.1%
Turnovers (L5)
+21.1% more
Atlanta: 17.0
vs
Sacramento: 14.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.5%
Atlanta: 80.3%
vs
Sacramento: 77.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
104.9
123
ATL Score
99.7
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 31.5
38.0 / 33.3
Assists
27.8 / 26.0
30.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.1 / 5.8
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 47.7
44.6 / 48.3
Free Throw %
80.3 / 77.8
77.8 / 86.7
Rebounding
42.1 / 42.6
40.0 / 51.0
Steals
10.1 / 9.6
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
17.0 / 14.1
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SAC
ATL
SAC
ML
50%
52-52
55%
55-45
55%
48-40
61%
50-32
ATS
53%
55-48-1
54%
52-45-3
55%
48-40
61%
50-32
TTL
53%
55-48-1
58%
57-42-1
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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