NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
3-5-0 | Road
4
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
4-5-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Mattias Samuelsson
#23 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 3.00 | 0.914 | -- |
| Mattias Samuelsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00
GAA
--
0.914
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
ISLANDERS
100%
SABRES
0%
ISLANDERS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
NYI By 1 goal
7.5%
NYI By 2-3 goals
4.5%
BUF By 1 goal
18.2%
BUF By 2-3 goals
36.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
2.11
NEW YORK
Buffalo
3.93
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.8
D
Sim
Islanders (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
NYI @ BUF
3 - 4
Jan 24, 2026
BUF @ NYI
5 - 0
Dec 20, 2025
NYI @ BUF
2 - 3
Dec 23, 2024
BUF @ NYI
7 - 1
Nov 30, 2024
BUF @ NYI
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+23.4% more
Buffalo: 15.9
vs
New York: 12.9
Power Play % (L5)
+7.4%
Buffalo: 17.0%
vs
New York: 9.5%
Takeaways (L5)
+26.4% more
New York: 7.1
vs
Buffalo: 5.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+11.7%
New York: 60.1%
vs
Buffalo: 48.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYI Score
2.1
4
BUF Score
3.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.9 / 12.9
9.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
48.5 / 60.1
45.6 / 54.4
Hits
20.3 / 21.6
18.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
17.0 / 9.5
25.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
29.3 / 31.3
35.0 / 36.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 7.1
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
NYI
BUF
NYI
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
2-0-1
33%
1-2
100%
2-0-1
Contextual Game News
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