Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Titans NE @ TEN

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

2-6  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sun, Nov 3 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

1-6  |  Home

20
Key Game
Harold Landry III
KEY GAME

Harold Landry III

#2 | Linebacker
@
Jaylen Harrell
KEY GAME

Jaylen Harrell

#92 | Linebacker
Player
Harold Landry III None-None
Jaylen Harrell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
📊
TITANS
0%
PATRIOTS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Tennessee)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

47.5%

Titans Cover

52.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEN -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEN)

NE By 1-6 points

16.2%

NE By 7-13 points

14.7%

TEN By 1-6 points

16.7%

TEN By 7-13 points

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
14.7
NEW ENGLAND
15.58
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
24
NEW ENGLAND
17
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Titans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Titans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim Patriots (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 30.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2025 NE @ TEN 31 - 13
Nov 3, 2024 NE @ TEN 17 - 20
Nov 28, 2021 TEN @ NE 13 - 36
Jan 4, 2020 TEN @ NE 20 - 13
Nov 11, 2018 NE @ TEN 10 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +154.0% more
Tennessee: 2.5 vs New England: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.4% more
Tennessee: 127.2 vs New England: 93.3
Total Yards (L5) +19.0% more
Tennessee: 315.0 vs New England: 264.7
First Downs (L5) +14.7% more
Tennessee: 19.2 vs New England: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 14.7 17
TEN Score 15.6 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 16.7 24.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 187.8 / 171.4 233.0 / 185.0
Rushing Yards 127.2 / 93.3 167.0 / 110.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 315.0 / 264.7 400.0 / 295.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 0.9 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 4.5 5.5 / 4.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
NE
TEN
NE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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